October 2026 Energy Price Cap: £1,935 Confirmed and What to Do Next

Ofgem confirmed on 26 August 2026 that the UK energy price cap for 1 October to 31 December 2026 rises to £1,935 a year for a typical dual-fuel household paying by Direct Debit, measured on the consumption basis we use throughout our cap history.

Ofgem's own headline figure is £1,723, using the lower typical-use definition it adopted in July 2026. Both numbers describe the same unit rates. We lead on the higher one because it is the only figure that compares like-for-like with every earlier quarter on our chart.

That is a 3.9% rise against the current £1,862, or about £6.08 more per month for households on standard variable tariffs (SVT). Ofgem states the change as 4%, £60 a year or £5 a month, measured on its own basis.

Quick answer

• If you are on SVT, your unit rates and standing charges update automatically on 1 October 2026.
• The figures above already include the VAT cut on electricity. Without it the cap would have been roughly £45 higher.
• If a fixed deal beats the new cap rates on your actual usage, you can lock it in before then. Switching takes up to five working days.
• The cap limits unit rates and standing charges, not your total bill. Your spend depends on your usage.

Jump to

• What Ofgem confirmed on 26 August
• Why we quote two different figures
• The new unit rates from 1 October
• The VAT cut is already in this number
• Who is affected by the October cap?
• Forecast vs confirmed
• Should you fix before 1 October?
• What happens next

What Ofgem confirmed on 26 August

Ofgem confirmed that the cap period from 1 October to 31 December 2026 will be £1,935 on the like-for-like consumption basis, compared with £1,862 for July to September. On Ofgem's current typical-use basis the same rates come to £1,723, against £1,663 today.

Ofgem attributes the rise to higher wholesale gas prices driven by the ongoing conflict in the Middle East. The increase is not spread evenly: gas bills rise about 8%, while households that do not use gas see less than 1%. Electricity stays broadly stable, which Ofgem credits to the VAT cut starting the same day.

The key point does not change from quarter to quarter: the cap is not a cap on your total bill. It limits the maximum unit rates and standing charges suppliers can apply on default tariffs. A household using more energy than the typical values pays more than the headline figure.

Why we quote two different figures

Ofgem changed its Typical Domestic Consumption Values on 1 July 2026. The assumed "typical" household dropped from 2,700 kWh of electricity and 11,500 kWh of gas a year to 2,500 kWh and 9,500 kWh, reflecting genuinely falling household consumption.

That change lowered the headline number without lowering anyone's rates. The same unit rates produce £1,935 at the old consumption assumption and £1,723 at the new one.

We lead on the old basis for one reason: it is the only way to compare this quarter with the quarters before July without the yardstick moving underneath the comparison. Our cap history chart is plotted on that basis for the same reason. When you see Ofgem or the press quote £1,723, they are quoting the same cap on the newer, smaller definition of a typical home.

The new unit rates from 1 October

The rates behind the headline are what actually appear on your bill, and they do not depend on which consumption basis is used. These are the maximum rates for a typical dual-fuel household paying by Direct Debit (regional rates vary slightly):

Note the split. The electricity standing charge falls from 57.19p to 54.83p a day while the unit rate barely moves. Gas rises on both. That is why a gas-heated home sees roughly 8% more and an all-electric home sees under 1%.

To see what the new rates mean for your own bill rather than the typical household, upload your bill to Taupia. It reads your actual kWh and shows your projected cost from 1 October in under a minute.

The VAT cut is already in this number

VAT on domestic electricity falls from 5% to 0% on 1 October 2026, the same day the new cap starts. Ofgem states that without it the cap would have been about £45 higher.

That reduction is already inside the figures above. Ofgem sets the cap using the VAT rate that will apply during the period, so the October cap is roughly £45 lower than it would otherwise have been. Do not subtract £45 again.

The VAT cut is also the rare energy change that reaches fixed-tariff households. A cap change does nothing for you while your fix is running, but the VAT cut applies to the electricity you buy regardless of tariff, and the government expects suppliers to pass it on in full.

It is temporary. The zero rate runs to 31 March 2027, with any extension decided at the Autumn Budget. We explain the detail, including who benefits most and what happens in April, in our guide to the electricity VAT cut.

Who is affected by the October cap?

The October change primarily affects households on standard variable tariffs, who move to the new rates automatically on 1 October. Prepayment and standard-credit customers are also covered by cap protections at their own payment-method rates.

Households on fixed tariffs are not directly affected by the cap while their fix is active, though they do benefit from the VAT cut. If your fixed deal ends this autumn, the October cap is the default you fall onto unless you choose a new tariff first.

Forecast vs confirmed

Cornwall Insight's final forecast published on 19 August expected £1,941 on the like-for-like basis, equivalent to £1,729 on Ofgem's current basis. The confirmed figures came in slightly below both, at £1,935 and £1,723.

The forecast was out by about £6 a year, roughly 0.3%. That is close enough that the figures circulating in the press since mid-August were the right ones to plan around, and it continues a run of accurate quarterly calls. Treat Cornwall Insight's next forecast as a reliable early signal ahead of the 25 November announcement.

Should you fix before 1 October?

For many SVT households it is at least worth comparing now:

• If you do nothing on SVT, you accept the October reset automatically.
• If a fixed deal is cheaper than the new cap rates on your own usage profile, fixing locks that in and removes exposure to the January 2027 reset.
• Switching takes up to five working days, so a decision in late September still completes in time.
• Check whether a fixed quote already assumes zero-rated VAT on electricity, and what it assumes from April 2027 when the zero rate is due to end.

If you are already on a fixed deal, check exit fees first: the test is whether expected savings from the new tariff exceed the exit fee.

How to compare properly in 5 steps

1. Use your own annual gas and electricity usage in kWh from your latest bill.
2. Compare total annual cost, not headline unit rates alone.
3. Evaluate fixed options against your projected SVT cost from 1 October.
4. Include standing charges, payment-method differences, and any exit fees.
5. Prefer deals that still make sense if market conditions change.

A quick formula for apples-to-apples comparison:

(unit rate x annual kWh) + (standing charge x 365) + fees

What happens next

Ofgem's next cap announcement is due 25 November 2026, covering January to March 2027, typically the most expensive quarter of the year. The electricity VAT zero rate is currently due to end on 31 March 2027, so the January cap and the spring VAT decision land close together.

If your current tariff is uncompetitive, comparing now gives you a clearer baseline before the winter reset. Taupia monitors your tariff against the market continuously, so you find out when a better deal exists rather than checking manually every quarter.