October 2026 Energy Price Cap: £1,935 Confirmed and What to Do Next

Ofgem confirmed on 26 August 2026 that the UK energy price cap for 1 October to 31 December 2026 in Great Britain rises to £1,935 a year for a typical dual-fuel household paying by Direct Debit, measured on the 2023 consumption basis we use for recent cap comparisons.

Ofgem's own headline figure is £1,723, using the lower typical-use definition it adopted in July 2026. Both numbers describe the same unit rates. We lead on the higher one to compare like-for-like with chart periods from October 2023 onwards. Earlier headlines used different consumption assumptions and are not directly comparable.

That is a 3.9% rise on the July to September 2026 cap of £1,862, or about £6.08 more per month for households on standard variable tariffs (SVT). Ofgem states the change as 4%, £60 a year or £5 a month, measured on its own basis.

Quick answer

• If you are on SVT, your unit rates and standing charges update automatically on 1 October 2026.
• The figures above already include the VAT cut on electricity. Without it the cap would have been roughly £45 higher.
• If a fixed deal beats the cap rates on your actual usage, fixing locks that price in for the length of the deal. Suppliers must complete a switch within five working days.
• The cap limits unit rates and standing charges, not your total bill. Your spend depends on your usage.

Jump to

• What Ofgem confirmed on 26 August
• Why we quote two different figures
• The new unit rates from 1 October
• The VAT cut is already in this number
• Who is affected by the October cap?
• Forecast vs confirmed
• Should you fix or stay on the cap?
• What happens next

What Ofgem confirmed on 26 August

Ofgem confirmed that the cap period from 1 October to 31 December 2026 will be £1,935 on the like-for-like consumption basis, compared with £1,862 for July to September. On Ofgem's current typical-use basis the same rates come to £1,723, against £1,663 for July to September.

Ofgem attributes the rise to higher wholesale gas prices driven by the ongoing conflict in the Middle East. The increase is not spread evenly: gas bills rise about 8%, while households that do not use gas see less than 1%. Electricity stays broadly stable, which Ofgem credits to the VAT cut starting the same day.

The key point does not change from quarter to quarter: the cap is not a cap on your total bill. It limits the maximum unit rates and standing charges suppliers can apply on default tariffs. A household using more energy than the typical values pays more than the headline figure.

Why we quote two different figures

Ofgem changed its Typical Domestic Consumption Values on 1 July 2026. The assumed "typical" household dropped from 2,700 kWh of electricity and 11,500 kWh of gas a year to 2,500 kWh and 9,500 kWh, reflecting genuinely falling household consumption.

That change lowered the headline number without lowering anyone's rates. The same unit rates produce £1,935 at the old consumption assumption and £1,723 at the new one.

We lead on the old basis for one reason: it lets us compare this quarter with periods from October 2023 to June 2026 without changing the consumption assumption. Our cap history chart retains that basis from October 2023 onwards. Its earlier headlines use 2,900 kWh of electricity and 12,000 kWh of gas a year, so comparisons across that boundary need care. When you see Ofgem or the press quote £1,723, those are the same rates as £1,935 on the 2023 basis, measured using the newer, smaller definition of a typical home.

The new unit rates from 1 October

The rates behind the headline are what actually appear on your bill, and they do not depend on which consumption basis is used. These are the maximum rates for a typical dual-fuel household paying by Direct Debit (regional rates vary slightly):

Note the split. The electricity standing charge falls from 57.19p to 54.83p a day while the unit rate barely moves. Gas rises on both. That is why a gas-heated home sees roughly 8% more and an all-electric home sees under 1%.

To see what the new rates mean for your own bill rather than the typical household, upload your bill to Taupia. It reads your actual kWh and shows your projected cost at the cap rates in under a minute.

The VAT cut is already in this number

VAT on domestic electricity in Great Britain falls from 5% to 0% on 1 October 2026, the same day the new cap starts. Ofgem states that without it the cap would have been about £45 higher.

That reduction is already inside the figures above. Ofgem sets the cap using the VAT rate that will apply during the period, so the October cap is roughly £45 lower than it would otherwise have been. Do not subtract £45 again.

In Great Britain, the VAT cut also reaches fixed-tariff households. A cap change does nothing for you while your fix is running, but the VAT cut applies to the electricity you buy regardless of tariff, and the government expects suppliers to pass it on in full.

It is temporary. The Great Britain zero rate runs to 31 March 2027. Northern Ireland domestic electricity remains at 5% VAT. We explain the detail, including who benefits most and what happens in April, in our guide to the electricity VAT cut.

Who is affected by the October cap?

The October change primarily affects households on standard variable tariffs, who move to the new rates automatically on 1 October. Prepayment and standard-credit customers are also covered by cap protections at their own payment-method rates.

Households on fixed tariffs are not directly affected by the cap while their fix is active, though they do benefit from the VAT cut. If your fixed deal ends between 1 October and 31 December 2026, the October cap is the default you fall onto unless you choose a new tariff first.

Forecast vs confirmed

Cornwall Insight's final forecast published on 19 August expected £1,941 on the like-for-like basis, equivalent to £1,729 on Ofgem's current basis. The confirmed figures came in slightly below both, at £1,935 and £1,723.

The forecast was out by about £6 a year, roughly 0.3%. That is close enough that the figures circulating in the press since mid-August were the right ones to plan around. Cornwall Insight's first forecast for January to March 2027 is in our January 2027 price cap forecast.

Should you fix or stay on the cap?

For many SVT households it is at least worth comparing:

• If you do nothing on SVT, you follow the cap: the October to December rates from 1 October 2026, then the January to March 2027 rates from 1 January 2027.
• If a fixed deal is cheaper than the new cap rates on your own usage profile, fixing locks that in and removes exposure to the January 2027 reset.
• Ofgem says suppliers must complete a household switch within five working days. Ask a prospective supplier when it can begin, because the cooling-off period may affect your completion date.
• Check whether a fixed quote already assumes zero-rated VAT on electricity, and what it assumes from April 2027 when the zero rate is due to end.

If you are already on a fixed deal, check exit fees first: the test is whether expected savings from the new tariff exceed the exit fee. Our two-minute switching decision guide walks through the tariff, end date and fee.

How to compare properly in 5 steps

1. Use your own annual gas and electricity usage in kWh from your latest bill.
2. Compare total annual cost, not headline unit rates alone.
3. Evaluate fixed options against your projected SVT cost at the cap rates.
4. Include standing charges, payment-method differences, and any exit fees.
5. Prefer deals that still make sense if market conditions change.

A quick formula for apples-to-apples comparison:

(unit rate x annual kWh) + (standing charge x 365) + fees

What happens next

Ofgem’s announcement is due 25 November 2026 for January to March 2027. Cornwall Insight’s 30 September forecast is £1,999.28 on the current consumption basis, about 16% above October’s £1,723 (£1,935 on the previous basis). Read the January forecast for the dated estimate and its limits. Electricity’s zero VAT rate is currently scheduled to end on 31 March 2027.

If your tariff is uncompetitive, comparing gives you a clearer baseline before the January reset. Taupia monitors your tariff against the market continuously, so you find out when a better deal exists rather than checking manually every quarter.

Check the bill after an autumn move

Match your first bill with the responsibility date and dated opening readings. A bill spanning 1 October can contain two rate periods; ask the supplier to review an estimate if the evidence does not match. Do not invent a missed changeover reading. Check electricity VAT for the supply dates and keep household responsibility changes separate from supplier account changes. Use the student first-bill checklist or energy setup guide.