What is the January 2027 energy price cap forecast?

Cornwall Insight's forecast of 26 August 2026 puts the cap for 1 January to 31 March 2027 at £2,107 a year on the like-for-like basis, or £1,872 on Ofgem's current typical-use definition, for a typical dual-fuel household paying by Direct Debit. It is a forecast, not Ofgem's confirmed cap.

How much higher is the January forecast than the October cap?

About 9% on either basis. On the like-for-like basis the forecast is £172 a year above the October to December 2026 cap of £1,935. On Ofgem's current basis it is £149 above £1,723. That is roughly £14 or £12 a month for a typical household.

Will the January forecast affect my fixed energy tariff?

Not while your fixed tariff lasts. The cap limits unit rates and standing charges on default tariffs such as standard variable tariffs. If your fix ends this winter, you move onto the capped variable rates unless you choose a new tariff first.

Why are there two forecast figures for January 2027?

Ofgem changed its typical-use definition on 1 July 2026, from 2,700 kWh of electricity and 11,500 kWh of gas a year to 2,500 kWh and 9,500 kWh. Cornwall Insight publishes its forecast on both: £2,107 on the previous definition and £1,872 on the current one. They are the same forecast rates applied to two assumed households.

Energy Price Cap Forecast January 2027: 9% Rise Expected

Q: When will Ofgem announce the January 2027 energy price cap?

Ofgem's timetable sets 25 November 2026 as the date it announces the cap for 1 January to 31 March 2027. The confirmed rates apply from 1 January 2027.

Cornwall Insight's forecast, published on 26 August 2026, puts the January to March 2027 energy price cap at £2,107 a year for a typical dual-fuel household paying by Direct Debit. That is on the like-for-like consumption basis we use throughout our cap history.

On Ofgem's current typical-use definition, the same forecast is £1,872, the figure Cornwall Insight leads with. Both numbers describe the same forecast rates.

Against the October to December 2026 cap, both point to a rise of about 9%: £172 a year on the like-for-like basis, from £1,935, or £149 a year on Ofgem's basis, from £1,723.

This is a forecast, not the final cap. Ofgem's timetable sets 25 November 2026 as the date it announces the cap for 1 January to 31 March 2027, and the confirmed rates apply from 1 January.

Forecast at a glance (Cornwall Insight, 26 August 2026)
January to March 2027, like-for-like basis: £2,107/year
Same forecast on Ofgem's current typical-use basis: £1,872/year
October to December 2026 cap: £1,935/year like-for-like (£1,723 on Ofgem's basis)
Forecast change, like-for-like: +£172 a year, or +8.9%
Forecast change on Ofgem's basis: +£149 a year, or +8.7% (Cornwall Insight rounds it to 9%)
Market figures used: close of play on 25 August 2026
Ofgem announces the January cap: 25 November 2026

Quick answer: should you do anything now?

On a standard variable tariff (SVT): your rates follow the cap. They move to the October to December rates on 1 October 2026, then to whatever Ofgem confirms for January to March on 1 January 2027. If certainty matters more to you than waiting, compare fixed deals using your own usage.
On a fixed tariff: the forecast does not change your rates while the fix lasts. If your fix ends this winter, check the end date: without a new tariff you move onto the capped variable rates.
Not sure which you are on: your latest bill shows the tariff name, contract end date and annual use in kWh. Taupia can read these details for you and compare live options.

The cap limits unit rates and standing charges on default tariffs. It does not cap what your household spends in total, so a national figure is only a starting point.

What Cornwall Insight is forecasting

Cornwall Insight publishes two versions of the same forecast, because Ofgem changed its typical-use definition on 1 July 2026:

£1,872 a year on the current definition: 2,500 kWh of electricity and 9,500 kWh of gas.
£2,107 a year on the previous definition: 2,700 kWh of electricity and 11,500 kWh of gas.

They are the same forecast rates applied to two assumed households, not two different forecasts. We lead with £2,107 because it compares like-for-like with every quarter before July 2026 on our price cap chart, which plots this forecast next to the confirmed caps.

Behind the headline, Cornwall Insight's forecast unit rates for a dual-fuel Direct Debit customer are 28.33p per kWh for electricity and 8.94p per kWh for gas, with daily standing charges of about 55p and 31p. Your own rates depend on your region, payment method and meter.

Cornwall Insight calculated the forecast from market figures at close of play on 25 August 2026. When we checked on 28 September 2026, its forecast page, last updated on 23 September, still gave the same January figures.

What the forecast means against the October cap

Basis	October to December 2026 (confirmed)	January to March 2027 (forecast)	Change
Like-for-like (previous definition)	£1,935	£2,107	+£172 (+8.9%)
Ofgem's current definition	£1,723	£1,872	+£149 (+8.7%)

For a typical household that is about £14 more a month on the like-for-like basis, or about £12 a month on Ofgem's measure.

The rise is not spread evenly. Here are Cornwall Insight's forecast rates next to the rates Ofgem confirmed for October:

Rate	October to December 2026	January to March 2027 (forecast)
Electricity unit rate	26.32p per kWh	28.33p per kWh
Electricity standing charge	54.83p per day	about 55p per day
Gas unit rate	7.97p per kWh	8.94p per kWh
Gas standing charge	29.68p per day	about 31p per day

The gas unit rate rises by about 12% and the electricity unit rate by about 8%, so in percentage terms a gas-heated home would see a bigger rise than an all-electric one.

Why bills are forecast to rise in January

Cornwall Insight gives these reasons in its 26 August release:

Wholesale energy costs make up more than 40% of the cap, and mixed signals about the next stages of the US-Iran conflict pushed gas prices up in the weeks before the forecast.
A summer heatwave across Europe, supply disruption in Norway and strong demand from Asia left winter gas stocks low, particularly in continental Europe.
In its view, even if the conflict ended, colder weather, displaced global supply and low stocks mean January prices are likely to stay higher in the short to medium term.

It also makes the opposite point: the January figure will not be confirmed until November, and there is still plenty of time for wholesale markets to move. Treat £2,107, or £1,872 on Ofgem's basis, as a planning figure rather than a bill.

When will the January 2027 cap be confirmed?

Ofgem's timetable sets 25 November 2026 as the date it announces the cap for 1 January to 31 March 2027. Until then the figures on this page are a forecast, and they govern no bill.

When Ofgem publishes, we will update this guide and our UK energy price cap guide with the confirmed figures on both bases. The confirmed October to December 2026 figures, including the unit rates, are in our October 2026 price cap breakdown.

Should you fix before January?

There is no single right answer, but this check helps:

Find your tariff, annual kWh use, payment method and contract end date on your latest bill.
Work out whether you are on a variable tariff or a fixed deal.
Compare the total annual cost of the fixed deals open to you, including standing charges and any exit fee, with what your usage costs on the capped variable rates.
Decide whether a fixed price is worth more to you than following the cap, which Ofgem sets every three months.

Ofgem says suppliers must complete a household switch within five working days, and you can cancel a switch within 14 days if you change your mind.

If the comparison feels like a lot, upload your bill to Taupia. It reads your tariff and usage and compares live options against your household rather than a national average.