Energy Price Cap Forecast January 2027: 16% to 27% Rise

Cornwall Insight's 30 September 2026 forecast puts the January to March 2027 energy price cap at £1,999.28 a year on Ofgem's current typical-consumption basis, about 16% above October's £1,723 (£1,935 on the previous basis). Supplier forecasts updated between 7 and 16 October run higher, from £2,074 to £2,185. Ofgem is due to confirm the cap on 25 November 2026.

Every figure here is a forecast, not a tariff offer or a maximum bill. Forecasts move with wholesale prices until Ofgem's announcement.

What do the forecasts say for January 2027?

All six figures below are for a typical dual-fuel household paying by Direct Debit on Ofgem's current basis of 2,500 kWh electricity and 9,500 kWh gas a year. Each comes from the forecaster's own page, read on 17 October 2026. Changes are against October's cap of £1,723 on the same measure (£1,935 on the previous basis). Cornwall Insight, OVO and E.ON Next state their own change; the British Gas and EDF changes are our arithmetic.

We lead with Cornwall Insight because it is an energy consultancy rather than a supplier, and our price-cap history has set its forecasts beside Ofgem's confirmed caps since 2023. Its figure is also the oldest here. The supplier figures were updated up to 16 days later, and the Uswitch average was worked out before British Gas raised its forecast on 15 October, so the full range matters more than any one number.

Why are energy bills predicted to rise to nearly £2,000 in January?

Cornwall Insight's release puts the rise down mainly to the conflict in the Middle East, which continues to disrupt gas supplies to the UK and the rest of the world. It adds that EU gas storage was at its lowest September level in 15 years, at around 65% full at the start of the month.

Timing matters too. The wholesale part of each cap is set from prices over a fixed observation window. Wholesale prices reached a four-year high in early September before falling back, and Cornwall Insight says the September rises are already locked into the January cap. How large the rise ends up depends on how the conflict develops before Ofgem sets the figure.

Why do the forecasts differ?

Each forecast is a different view of wholesale and other costs, made on a different date. British Gas, for example, says its predictions follow Ofgem's price cap methodology with its own forecasts of other costs, and that it updates them every week. Every supplier in the table gives its January forecast a low-confidence label, so treat the spread as the honest picture.

What the forecast means for your household

The headline figures assume dual fuel, Direct Debit and Ofgem's typical consumption. Your supplier charges for the energy you actually use plus daily standing charges, and those rates differ by region and payment method. Our energy price cap rates by region show the October to December 2026 rates for all 14 regions.

The cap applies to default tariffs in Great Britain. It does not cover Northern Ireland, an active fixed tariff or communal heating supplied through a heat network.

Why the latest estimate is separate from our historical chart

Our price-cap history uses 2,700 kWh electricity and 11,500 kWh gas for comparisons from October 2023 onward. Earlier headlines keep their older assumptions and are labelled accordingly. Cornwall Insight's latest release supplies only the current-basis total, so we keep the forecast separate rather than calculate an unsupported historical-basis figure.

The confirmed October cap is £1,723 on the current measure and £1,935 on the previous measure. Compare like with like when reading headlines.

Should you fix before January?

A forecast does not change a fixed tariff you already have. If you are on a default tariff, or a fix ends this winter, compare any fixed offer on your own usage and check its exit fee. Our guide to fixing before the January 2027 cap works through the arithmetic with the national rates, and sets out who should not fix. You can also check your tariff in Taupia using a recent bill: it compares live deals from 19 suppliers on your usage and switches only once you approve.

When to check again

Ofgem's timetable sets 25 November 2026 for the cap on rates from 1 January 2027, and Ofgem says it may publish earlier if it needs to. We recheck the table above each week until then. Return to the cap guide for the confirmed figures when they are available.