Should You Fix Energy Before the January 2027 Price Cap?

A fixed tariff beats the price cap only if its annual cost on your own usage is lower than the cap would cost over the same months. Forecasts published between 30 September and 13 October 2026 put the January to March 2027 cap at £1,999 to £2,148 a year for a typical household, against October's £1,723 on Ofgem's current measure (£1,935 on the previous basis). Nobody knows what the cap will be after March, so this guide shows how to decide rather than telling you to fix.

_Forecast figures last reviewed on 13 October 2026. We recheck them each week until Ofgem's announcement on 25 November 2026._

What do the forecasts say for January 2027?

Each figure is for dual fuel paid by Direct Debit on Ofgem's current typical use of 2,500 kWh electricity and 9,500 kWh gas a year, read from the forecaster's own page on 13 October 2026. Our January 2027 forecast comparison adds each forecaster's change on October and its confidence label.

Every supplier in the table labels its January forecast with low confidence, and gives the same or a lower label to its forecasts further ahead.

How do you compare a fixed tariff with the cap?

Price both on the same usage, fuel by fuel: the kWh you use in a year times the unit rate, plus 365 days of standing charge. Your annual kWh is on your bill or in your supplier account. The worked example below uses national averages, and these are its assumptions:

• Ofgem's typical use: 2,500 kWh of electricity and 9,500 kWh of gas a year.
• Ofgem's Great Britain average rates for Direct Debit. Your region's rates differ: see energy price cap rates by region.
• The same rates all year. Real bills weigh winter more heavily, especially for gas.

The October to December 2026 cap. Ofgem's average rates are 26.32p per kWh and 54.83p a day for electricity, and 7.97p per kWh and 29.68p a day for gas.

• Electricity: 2,500 × 26.32p = £658.00, plus 365 × 54.83p = £200.13, so £858.13.
• Gas: 9,500 × 7.97p = £757.15, plus 365 × 29.68p = £108.33, so £865.48.
• Total: £1,723.61 a year. Ofgem publishes £1,723 for these rates on its current measure, or £1,935 on the previous consumption basis.

The January 2027 forecast. Cornwall Insight's per-unit forecast is 30.28p per kWh and 55p a day for electricity, and 9.76p per kWh and 31p a day for gas.

• Electricity: 2,500 × 30.28p = £757.00, plus 365 × 55p = £200.75, so £957.75.
• Gas: 9,500 × 9.76p = £927.20, plus 365 × 31p = £113.15, so £1,040.35.
• Total: £1,998.10 a year. Cornwall Insight's own total is £1,999.28, because its per-unit figures leave out some adjustments the total includes.

Now price the fixed quote the same way, using its unit rates and standing charges and your usage. A 12-month fix starting in January covers the January quarter and three more that Ofgem has not set.

What do the numbers mean for a fixed quote?

For typical use, three bands help. Scale them by redoing the arithmetic with your own kWh and your region's rates, not by adjusting the totals.

• Below about £1,724 a year: cheaper than a year at the October to December 2026 cap rates, and below every forecast in the table.
• About £1,724 to £2,038: cheaper than the cap only if the cap stays near the January forecasts for most of the fix. If it falls back towards October's level, the fix costs more.
• Above £2,038: EDF publishes a break-even from its own forecasts. It says a one-year fix costing £2,038 or less a year at typical use could save money against a variable tariff that tracks the cap. Above that, the fix pays off only if the cap ends up higher than EDF expects.

A fix also buys certainty. If a predictable bill matters more to you than the lowest possible cost, that is a fair reason to pay slightly more. It is not a reason to skip the comparison.

What about exit fees and moving house?

Ofgem says you may have to pay your old supplier an exit fee if you leave a fixed tariff before it ends. Before you sign, check the fee, when it stops applying, and what the terms say about moving home: whether the tariff can move with you, and whether a move counts as leaving early.

If you move into a new home, the existing supplier there bills you on its default tariff until you choose a deal, and the price cap covers that tariff. Ofgem says you can choose a new tariff or supplier after you have moved in. Our guide to the price cap when you move in covers the first bill and when to switch.

Once you have chosen, Ofgem says a supplier must complete the switch within 5 working days, and you can cancel within 14 days.

Who should not fix before January?

• Anyone already on a fix with an exit fee larger than any realistic difference. Leaving early can cost more than the fix saves.
• Anyone likely to move during the fix whose tariff cannot move with them.
• Anyone quoted above £2,038 for typical use, unless certainty is worth the extra to them. That is EDF's break-even, and it already allows for EDF forecasting a further rise in April 2027.
• Households whose usage is far from typical. A high-electricity home and a gas-heated home can reach opposite answers from the same quote, so price both on your own kWh.

What happens on 25 November 2026?

Ofgem's timetable sets 25 November 2026 to announce the cap for 1 January to 31 March 2027, and Ofgem says it may publish earlier if it needs to. The new rates apply from 1 January 2027. A fixed tariff keeps its own rates whatever Ofgem announces.

Cornwall Insight explains that the wholesale part of the January cap is set from prices over a fixed observation window, and that the September price rises are already locked in. Once Ofgem confirms the cap, compare any quote with the confirmed figure rather than a forecast. Ofgem's next scheduled date after that is 23 February 2027, for the April to June 2027 cap.

How can Taupia help?

Taupia compares live energy deals from 19 suppliers, around 90% of the Great Britain market, on the usage and rates in your own bill, and switches only once you approve. It is free to use and it never guarantees a saving. See how Taupia compares energy prices, or follow the confirmed figures in our UK energy price cap guide.